Gem Spotlight is a new monthly post: I pick one company from the Guru Gems portfolio and collect the most interesting things that came out about it in the past month.
I'm starting with Uber, which I added in February and which is now about 7% of the portfolio.
You can read why in my 2026 watchlist, the week I bought it and my Bill Ackman issue.
The past month in five lines
Management: CEO Dara Khosrowshahi spoke at Goldman Sachs Communacopia on 10 September and bought about $10 million of Uber shares that day.
A deal: On 6 October Uber agreed to buy ezCater, a US workplace catering platform, for $2.3 billion in cash.
Analysts: On 5 October Wells Fargo raised its price target to $92 from $89, keeping its Overweight rating.
Two deep-dives: The Coastal Journal (9 September) tests the claim that Tesla’s Cybercab will make Uber obsolete, and Maxx Waring (13 October) explains why he is passing on Uber for now.
A podcast: Jonathan Boyar (29 September) thinks Uber does well as long as robotaxis have more than one winner.
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What the Gurus did
Here is what the Gurus I follow did over the past 2 years (latest positions are as of 30 June 2026):
John Armitage (Egerton Capital) cut Uber by half, from 4.7 million to 2.3 million shares. It went from 3.7% to 1.6% of Egerton’s 13F portfolio. I wrote about Armitage one year ago and will revisit him in this Sunday’s Guru Gems.
The Q3 13Fs should come out by mid-November.
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Uber CEO fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Communacopia, 10 September
Robust Financial Growth & Sparse Market Expansion: Uber has sustained over 20% gross bookings growth across four consecutive quarters by expanding into sparse markets (which are growing 1.5 times faster than core markets) and implementing a “barbell” strategy that uses excess margins from premium services to fund lower-cost customer acquisition products.
Ecosystem Lock-In via Uber One & Multi-Product Usage: The Uber One membership program has scaled to over 50 million subscribers and accounts for ~50% of gross bookings; both members and cross-platform users spend 3 times more than single-product non-members, establishing higher customer lifetime economics and a defensive moat.
Long-Term Scaling in AV Partnerships & Retail Delivery: Uber is positioning itself as the primary commercialization partner for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), using platform demand to achieve an estimated 30% vehicle utilization advantage over single-fleet operators, while continuing rapid expansion in its $15 billion grocery and retail delivery vertical.
Deals and news
ezCater
Uber announced they will acquire ezCater, a food technology platform specializing in workplace and event catering, for $2.3 billion.
ezCater lets businesses order catering and office meals from more than 140,000 US restaurants (average order over $400). Uber says it did more than $2.5 billion of gross bookings in the last twelve months, growing in the high teens, and is profitable on a non-GAAP operating income basis.
Uber will combine it with Uber Eats and Uber for Business to win bigger group orders, which fits Dara’s ‘on-demand everything’ (his words at Communacopia).
The $2.3 billion is all cash. Uber’s free cash flow was $10.1 billion in the twelve months to 30 June, and it held $5.4 billion of unrestricted cash and short-term investments at that date. This comes on top of the Delivery Hero offer ($14.8 billion equity value, expected to close in the second half of 2027).
ezCater should close in the coming months, subject to regulators.
Real Madrid
On 7 October Real Madrid announced that Uber Eats would become a new official sponsor.
“Real Madrid and Uber Eats announce an agreement under which the platform becomes the official delivery partner of our club in Spain for the next three seasons, until June 2029. The alliance will enable both brands to develop campaigns, content, and experiences aimed at fans. Additionally, it includes Uber Eats' presence at Bernabéu matches and joint actions on digital channels.”
Having lived in Madrid for a while, I still carry a bit of Real Madrid in my heart, so I’m pleased to see them sign a 3-year deal with Uber Eats, one of my Guru Gems.
Worth your time
1/ The Coastal Journal: Robotaxi Race PT III: Uber vs. Tesla Cybercab (9 September, paid post)
“Tesla influencers are claiming that the Cybercab will kill Uber’s business. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the production, utilization, and earnings to find out if it can or can’t”
This is a really good detailed analysis on the topic of Uber vs Cybercab - worth reading.
"Tesla is attempting to build the machine. Uber is attempting to become the network that every machine wants access to"
2/ Jonathan Boyar (Boyar Value Group) with Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor on Value: After Hours (29 September, Uber discussed from 43:40)
Thesis. “The thesis on Uber is as long as there’s not just one autonomous vehicle company, they’re going to do quite well.” Riders won’t want “six different apps”.
Peak demand. Enough robotaxis for rush hour would sit idle the rest of the day, at around $100,000 a car by his estimate (Dara said some partners see a path to $50,000-60,000). So he expects drivers and AVs side by side for years.
3/ And for balance, Maxx Waring - Why I’m Passing on Uber (13 October)
One moat, and a local one. Running Uber through Hamilton Helmer’s 7 Powers, he finds only one strong power: the network effect, which works city by city. Riders and drivers switch apps at no cost, which is how well-funded local rivals beat Uber in China and Southeast Asia.
Robotaxis as a threat. He doubts Waymo or Tesla will build the cars and the software and then hand Uber the customer. By his rough math, about 130,000 robotaxis (around $13 billion of cars) could serve the 20 largest US cities. He sees Delivery as the safer business, since a self-driving car “cannot walk into a restaurant”.
Fair, not cheap. At about $68 he puts Uber at 23 times his normalized earnings of roughly $6 billion. He would get interested around 13 times (about $38 a share), and even then only as a small position.
Quick hits
Wells Fargo raised its Uber price target to $92 from $89 and kept its Overweight rating (5 October - Link).
Insider buying: President and COO Andrew Macdonald bought 70,000 shares (about $5.3 million) on 4 September and Dara Khosrowshahi 141,000 shares (about $10.0 million) on 10 September.
What I’m watching
Q3 results: Wednesday 4 November, 8:00 am ET.
Buybacks: about $3.0 billion in Q1 and $510 million in Q2. Since then Uber has agreed two acquisitions and sold €4.5 billion of bonds (15 September). With Dara calling the stock “really cheap”, how much did it buy back in Q3?
Robotaxis: does Uber reach 15 AV partners in market by year-end, up from nine?
The Gurus: in the Q3 13Fs, does anyone follow Armitage out, or Ackman, Smith and Dorsey in?
That’s it for this Gem Spotlight post. Thanks for reading and hope you enjoyed it.
You can follow me on Substack @gurugems and X @guru_gems for more updates.
Until next week!
Sources
Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, Dara Khosrowshahi, 10 Sep 2026 (Uber notice of the webcast, 19 Aug 2026)
Form 4, Dara Khosrowshahi, filed 10 Sep 2026: SEC
Form 4, Andrew Macdonald, filed 8 Sep 2026: SEC
Uber to Acquire ezCater as it Brings Catering to Uber Eats, Uber, 6 Oct 2026
Wells Fargo raises Uber stock price target to $92, Investing.com, 5 Oct 2026
Uber Eats, new official sponsor of Real Madrid, Real Madrid, 7 Oct 2026; video post on X, Real Madrid, 7 Oct 2026; Real Madrid agree 3-year deal with Uber Eats, Inside World Football, 9 Oct 2026
Robotaxi Race PT III: Uber vs. Tesla Cybercab, The Coastal Journal, 9 Sep 2026
Value: After Hours (S08 E32) with Jonathan Boyar, YouTube, live 29 Sep 2026; transcript, The Acquirer’s Multiple, 4 Oct 2026
Why I’m Passing on Uber - Maxx Waring, 13 Oct 2026
13F filings
Uber Q2 2026 10-Q, filed 5 Aug 2026: SEC
Uber Announces Results for Second Quarter 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings slides, Uber, 5 Aug 2026
Uber 8-K on the euro bond offering, filed 15 Sep 2026: SEC
Uber Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call, Uber, 5 Oct 2026
Guru Gems: 3 Stocks I’m watching for 2026 (#38, 4 Jan 2026), Adding a new Gem (#43, 8 Feb 2026), Bill Ackman & The Pershing Square Playbook (#44, 15 Feb 2026)